2015 KY GOV RACE Preliminary Analysis


I’ve had a number of requests to take a look at the data from the recent Kentucky Governors’ election.  I’ve had a few days to track down the data and create a few graphs for this election (and several hours cleaning up the data from my own mistakes).  I haven’t done a full analysis of the Kentucky Governor’s Race, but I have accomplished a cum % republican votes for the largest counties in 3 of the 4 different voting system used in Kentucky.

Code 1 and Code 4 Equipment: show clear signs of the anomolous trend for % Republican votes increasing with the number of votes cast. (Blue and Yellow lines on graph)

Code 2 Equipment: shows a clear downward trend (benefiting Dem) but has few votes cast. I would not draw any conclusions about this equipment due to insufficient data.  (Gray line on graph)

Code 3 Equipment: I haven’t investigated. It is used by only a few counties and has few total votes cast.

Here are the Codes I used for the Voting Equipment used by KY  counties:

  1. Hart InterCivic eScan and Hart InterCivic eSlate
  2. ES&S Ivotronic and ES&S M-100 Scan
  3. Electronic 1242, Hart InterCivic eScan and Hart InterCivic eSlate
  4. Accu-Vote ES & Accu-Vote TSX (Only Jefferson County uses this system)

The following counties were used in this analysis.

COUNTY         Eq. Code
Adair                     1
Daviess                 1
Fayette                 1
Floyd                     2
Jefferson              4
Jessamine             1
Kenton                  1
Laurel                    2

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3 thoughts on “2015 KY GOV RACE Preliminary Analysis”

  1. Thanks for doing this, Beth. Maybe this analysis and the press this messed up KY election is getting will help shine more light on the need for independent audits to verify results reasonably match the samples.

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