2014 Wichita Election Results

Wichita 2014 Election Results
This is the final graph from my presentation at the Lawrence Symposium yesterday. My friend Eileen encouraged me to make a post about it as it’s one she feels quite illustrative of the reason for concern.

During the Q&A after my talk, I sorta kinda said I didn’t think the Governor legitimately won the popular vote in 2014. It occurred to me later that probably wasn’t a very ‘politically astute’ thing to say. I hope the Governor does not personal offense. Such thoughts didn’t occur to me at the time because I was talking about how I read the data shown in this chart. I get engrossed in the data analysis and don’t think about anything else.

This chart shows each of the four statewide races, Governor, Senator, Secretary of State, and Attorney General graphed in a cumulative summation analysis. In addition, the cumulative summation analysis of Wichita registered republican voters is provided to give a comparison.

In the cumulative summation models, as the models accumulates more data (think moving left to right across the graph) we expect it to converge to the average quickly and show decreasing differences randomly distributed around the mean. When we see a pattern of the model increasing or decreasing, it indicates that the sequencing of the summation is not random, but has a relationship with the share of the vote achieved.

In the graph above, the % registered republican voters shows a pattern that is not visually distinguishable from random. The four races all show a clearly non-random pattern with striking similarities. All show the pattern of increasing republican share of the vote with increasing votes cast.

These are not independent datasets. The four races all show a similar pattern because they are highly correlated. The pattern itself is the troubling thing.

3 thoughts on “2014 Wichita Election Results”

  1. Beth,

    Some say the only useful statistical analysis is when
    you are able to look at official (1) Closing count of paper
    ballots v/s the (2) Verify hand count of every vote cast on
    every paper ballot. We can then glean useful data to
    decide on requesting a (3) Recount.

    The above three counts shall be done before any elected
    official take his/her seat or any questions voted on by
    the people becomes law.

    Beth, this is a corner stone of our “30 Full Voting Rights”.

    Let hope our 30 Full Voting Rights become law.

    Thanks and Good Luck,
    Frank Henry
    Full Voting Rights Advocate
    Cottonwood, Arizona
    Tel: 928-649-0249
    e-mail: fmhenry4@netzero.com

  2. I left Wichita in 2006 and am kept updated by my sister. I was stunned about the elections that brought Brownback, etal to office. I’m also stunned there is so little reported nationally about your efforts on what appears to be “stolen” elections as well as the cumbersome, certainly untimely, court response. It seems to me the press is treating your efforts with the same diligence as the national press ignoring for almost two years the poisoning in Flint MI. Can anything be done to get your data and the fundamental logic into the national press?

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